Sources of Grand Strategy and Regime Resilience

Grand strategy is much more than a military strategy. It refers to the full package of domestic and foreign policies. In a narrower sense, grand strategy is the logic underlying this policy package. Foreign policy is derived from grand strategy.

The policy calculus of grand strategy in general and the calculus of foreign policy in particular have, according to common sense, to take into account the dynamics of international and regional systems as well as the domestic imperatives of economic, political, security, and ideological issues. This statement is really common sensical - it is not interesting analytically. Here is more interesting analytically:

Grand strategy grows out of the match between international (often means regional for small states) power balances (configuration) and society's need for security, wealth, and position (standing, self-esteem), and influence (for major powers).

Viable grand strategies have to score high in this match.

Faced with an extremely hostile international environment, governments have two viable options.

The first is easier internationally but may be extremely difficult domestically. It is to transform into a grand strategy that accommodates the international power configuration. The rationale is to boost the grand strategy's score on security and wealth. Examples are the communist regimes in Eastern Europe that defected from the Soviet camp and opted for integration into the European Community and the West.

The second option is often easier domesticaly but will create difficulties on the international front. This option is to boost a grand strategy that is highly ambitious about its society's standing and self-esteem. This is to compensate the grand strategy's low score on security and also wealth. The net effect is to maintain grand strategy viability. Examples are the "ugly regimes" such as Iran, North Korea, and Cuba, but also Vietnam's anti-imperialists.

Grand strategy viability is the key to understanding why ugly regimes endure in an extremely hostile international environment.